The next three months may be anything but calm.
CFRA’s Sam Stovall warns the market is entering one of the toughest periods of the year.
“The third quarter is by far the weakest of the four quarters of the year — gaining only 0.5% on average,” the firm’s chief investment strategist told CNBC’s “” on Monday.
Stovall builds his case based on data going back to 1945. During the other quarters, he finds, the S&P 500 sees average returns of 2% to almost 4%.
His analysis comes two days before 2020’s second half begins and.
“The biggest risk is the number of cases of the Covid virus spiking once again, because of the cascading effect that it would have on corporate profits and the uncertainty that it would present toward the election in November,” Stovall said.
Despite 2020’s unprecedented downturn, Stovall says he believes the weaker historical trend will apply this year, too. He contends the market pullback that began on June 8 hasn’t ended yet.
“We’ve been stumbling along the way. We had a 7% pullback,” he said. “Sometime in the third quarter we end…