© Reuters. Goldman Says Markets Overestimating Election Result Delay Risk
(Bloomberg) — Traders need to reduce expectations that a delayed U.S. election result could upend markets, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:).
While a delayed outcome is a “tail risk,” a combination of early results, voter turnout, county-level data and the high correlation of polling errors across states suggests investors will have enough information on election night to determine the likely victor, wrote economists Michael Cahill and Alec Phillips in a note Thursday. A number of states — including some key battlegrounds — allow votes to be processed and counted well before election day, they noted.
“It seems fairly likely that there should be enough information on election night from states that will report results quickly for the market to be able to gauge the likely winner,” the pair wrote. “In other words, the S&P can trade…