For the first time ever, a recession could end with a bear market


Tim Cook, chief executive officer of Apple, speaks at the 2019 Dreamforce conference in San Francisco on November 19, 2019.

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty Images

With all due respect to the late, and great, Tom Petty, when it comes to today’s stock market averages, it’s “the weighting that is the hardest part.”

It’s been widely noted that the mega-cap technology stocks, from Apple to Amazon and from Microsoft to Facebook, are so heavily weighted in the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500, that they have driven those average to new all-time highs, even as the average stock remains down over 3% for the year-to-date.

The mega-caps, account for well over a quarter of the market value of the S&P 500, and even more of the NASDAQ, a concentration of gains we haven’t seen since the height of the internet bubble in late 1999 or the energy bubble in the early 1980s.

What’s odd about this potential inflection point is that the gains accrued to these stocks occurred in the midst of a pandemic and recession, not in a run-away bull market based on underlying euphoria that typifies love for a particular asset…

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